Potentially millions if Tucker Carlson can‘t pick up the audience left behind at the 8pm timeslot. With O‘Reilly‘s :30sec spot going for $16-$20K (peaking in the last 6 months at as much as $28K p/:30) there will be a lot of ground to make up.

I think it is too early to have a clear answer to this, but based on how Carlson has done at the 9PM slot, I think it is likely that he will be able to increase his current 9pm average unit price, but it will still be less then O‘Reilly‘s out going avg.

There is the possibility that advertisers will like him more as a show and personality that aligns with their brand values, but there is no guarantee that personality will translate into viewers. That will be one, if not the biggest, concern for the network moving forward. If Fox can sell viewers and advertisers on Carlson, maybe he can win back more of that revenue that has been streaming away since the recent revelations.

O‘Reilly was solid in the upfronts with an average of $16,251 p/:30, and his solid ratings meant a healthy scatter average of $20,487 p/:30. That being said, Carlson was not doing too badly himself in the upfronts during his 9pm stint with an average of $14,120 p/:30. Perhaps with the right format and support from the network, Carlson can make the move to 8pm and at least retain his :30 sec value, if not push it up thanks to the increased viewership potential at the earlier time slot.

Likely the 8pm asking price with Carlson at the helm will not command the same unit pricing during this Upfront. The avg negotiated ratings last time around, between the two hosts in the 8pm and 9pm hours were .2 of a point, but the audience size is different between 8 and 9. The real question is: can Carlson create a show that will keep O‘Reilly‘s viewers from clicking to another channel?

It is still too early to know how much, if any, Fox will lose or gain in ad revenue with O‘Reilly‘s departure. Other programs, such as Fox and Friends, and Hannity, are taking the ad load that shifted when advertisers abandoned O’Reilly earlier in the month. If the advertisers are happy with the program and viewership Carlson brings to the timeslot, they will stay, albeit at a lower rate initially, which will negatively impact revenue.